Energy Agency: Critical metal supplies are at risk of a major disturbance

Critical minerals face a growing risk for a “severe disorder” as a result of their large concentration in a few countries and the spread of export restrictions, according to a report issued by the International Energy Agency.

The agency indicated in the 2025 forecast report, which was issued on Wednesday, that the progress in achieving more diversification with supply chains will go at a slow pace, and that the investment momentum slowed after the decline in expansion of spending last year, and the lack of growth of exploration activities, and the financing of emerging projects has shown the slowdown.

With regard to copper, lehium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare ground minerals, the agency revealed that the average market share of the largest producing countries rose to 86% in 2024, while all growth in the supply depended mainly on a single supplier country, such as Indonesia regarding nickel, and China for other minerals.

The agency pointed out that 55% of the strategic minerals associated with the energy included in the report are currently subject to the form of export, and at the same time, the scope of restrictions expands, it is no longer limited to raw and purified minerals, but rather includes treatment techniques.

The high deficit of copper supplies
China is the main purification destination for 19 out of 20 metal analysis, and its average market share is about 70%. Although the sizes of the market of some minerals may be small, supply disorders may lead to great economic repercussions, and 15 minerals have shown huge fluctuations in prices compared to oil, according to the agency.

The Energy Agency also shed light on the large risks that threaten copper markets, in light of the countries’ endeavor to expand electricity networks, while mining projects are currently being implemented that the supply deficit will reach 30% by 2035.

As for the minerals used in batteries, the significant rise in the supply – the leadership of China, Indonesia and some African countries – led to low pressure on prices. It also faces various techniques for batteries the risk of great concentration, as China controls the supply chains of biomass, such as manganese sulfate and phosphoric acid.