The future of goods and gold in the fire of war

Gold and goods

Amid the escalation of geopolitical crises and global market changes, basic commodities enter a sensitive stage of investment re -evaluation, where military violence in the Middle East intersects with macroeconomic dynamics and global interest rates. With the continuation of the open war between Israel and Iran, and the high repercussions it carries on both sides, attention is directed to the performance of gold, oil and silver, as strategic indicators of the global market situation.

In this context, Oli Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saksu Bank, presented an in -depth reading of the future of the markets, during a special interview with the “Business with Lubna” program on Sky News Arabia, revealing deliberate and contradictory expectations with some traditional investment currents.

Hansen stopped at the determinants of supply and demand, geopolitical fluctuations, and the behavior of central banks, especially in light of the growing concerns about the slowdown of the American economy, and expected changes in monetary policies.

The escalation of conflict imposes new equations on the markets market

Hansen stressed that the military escalation in the Middle East, especially the open war between Iran and Israel, represents a pivotal geopolitical factor in influencing basic commodity markets, from energy and minerals to pills and oils.

He explained that oil prices, despite the fact that supplies are not exposed so far to any actual interruption, may continue their high levels in light of the “temporary satisfaction” in the markets towards supplies. But he warned in return that any sudden field development may turn the scales quickly.

Saksu Bank: We expect that there is no interruption in oil supplies

He said in this context: “The current scenario does not indicate real deductions in supplies, but this does not negate the existence of psychological effects on prices, especially in light of the ongoing tensions in the Gulf.”

He also stressed that other goods such as wheat and soybeans are indirectly affected by the increasing anxiety of production and transportation costs.

Gold in the range of expectations

With regard to gold, Hansen talked about a state of “high stability” of the price of yellow metal, and linking this strong performance to major political and economic transformations in the world. Unlike what City Group went to with its pessimistic expectations, with a decrease in gold to below $ 2,500 an ounce by the second half of 2026, Hansen adopted a more optimistic vision.

He pointed out that: “The high price of gold during the past three years was not passing, but rather reflects structural transformations in monetary policies and investment trends … I do not see real indications of its decline soon.”

It is likely that gold will witness an increase that could reach $ 4000 an ounce by the end of this year, driven by a number of factors that include the prospective US dollar, geopolitical risks, and continued precautionary trends from central banks.

Silver shines again and the trend towards standard performance

In the silver axis, Hansen stressed that this mineral is witnessing an exceptional moment, as its prices exceeded 35 dollars per ounce, expected that this momentum will continue to reach the levels of $ 40 during the coming period, especially in light of the comparative performance rates that reached 91 percent between gold and silver.

“Silver is no longer just a gold metal, but rather has become a source of self -hedge, due to the increase in industrial and investment demand,” according to Hansen.

Variation in the vision between international banks

In this context, it contradicts the strategic analysis of Hansen with estimates of major global banks, such as “City Group”, which indicated that the improvement of the global economy may reduce the investment demand for gold.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs and UPS showed ascending tendencies in their expectations, likely to reach gold levels of 3700 to 4000 dollars in the near term.

Hansen pointed out that one of the hidden factors behind this performance is the role of central banks, led by China and Russia, which intensified the purchases of gold, to exceed the barrier of 1000 tons annually since 2022.

“Central banks are the hidden driver of the gold market, and their decisions are translated directly in prices.”

Energy and hedge: caution, master of the situation

As for energy markets, Hansen pointed out that the hedge has become “inevitable” in light of the continuation of the war, as companies resort to buying insurance tools through the options market, in order to avoid the upcoming risks.

He continued, saying: “The energy market is in a state of maximum alert … hedge is no longer a choice, but rather a strategic necessity for companies, especially with the steady increase in wheat prices, soybeans and other food commodities.”

American economy: The slowdown is not necessarily a crisis

In his analysis of the performance of the American economy, Hansen saw that the relative decline does not necessarily mean entering the country in a stagnation, but rather described it as a “natural correction” in an extended economic cycle.

He said: “I expect the American economy to end this year with a relatively positive performance, with a gradual decline in interest rates, which will again support the appetite of investors towards gold and minerals.”

He added that the relationship between interest and gold prices is not written as it is believed, so “even in a high interest environment, gold prices can continue to rise if geopolitical risks rise or cash tensions increase.”

Investment banks: $ 38, the price of an ounce of silver at the end of the year

Smart investment in the midst of the storm

During his speech, Oli Hansen stressed the importance of smart diversification in investment during this sensitive stage, pointing out that precious metals, grains and energy are the most prominent goods to be monitored.

“I think that the best strategy is currently investing in precious metals such as gold and silver, in parallel with the monitoring of energy markets … The crisis has not ended yet, and a proper hedge may be a lifeline for investors.”

Hidden costs of war: Israel and Iran losses as a model

Parallel to Hansen’s analyzes, the high costs of the raging war between Iran and Israel cannot be ignored. According to a former financial advisor to the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Israel spends approximately 725 million dollars per day in its open war, not to mention the bill of the Gaza war, which exceeded 67 billion dollars until the end of 2024, amid the closure of thousands of companies and an increasing migration for young people.

On the other hand, Iran is also drowning in its economic crisis, with an enlargement of more than 50 percent and unemployment among young people exceeding 25 percent, and economic sanctions that Tehran has replaced 270 billion dollars since 2018, as well as the riyal declining by 70 percent since 2022.

Between wars and monetary policies … commodities at the heart of the battle

Saksu Bank, specifically the first analysis of Hansen, provides a realistic reading of the next stage, as political geography intersects with economic dynamics in forming a new global scene. Between the rise of gold, the anxiety of investors and the fluctuation of oil, the commodity markets remain an open confrontation square, drawn by not only defender and missiles, but indicators, interest, dollar and yen.

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