The global “Kepler” expects a surplus in the oil supply during the second half and 2026

Kepler International, which specializes in international shipping data, expected a surplus in the oil supply during the second half of this year and in the entire 2026, based on the decline in the “OPEC+” alliance from the voluntary cuts of supplies and the volume of refineries request, which came without expected in many major economies.

These developments extend the balance of raw and condensate stocks in the current and next two years, with repercussions that are likely to extend beyond the near -term basics and reach the process of forming the same prices, according to what the company said in a report.

The “OPEC+” coalition has decided to gradually restore production after previous voluntary discounts of 2.2 million barrels per day.

OPEC has kept the global demand growth forecast during the current and next years at 1.3 million barrels per day in the May report, unchanged from April’s forecasts.

The “Kepler” report stated that the response to the increase in supplies, which coincided with the improvement of the production of non -member states such as Canada, Brazil and China, is working to transform the balance in a significant way towards the surplus in the second half of this year, to continue throughout the next year.

Additional oil supplies test the market’s ability to absorb it

While Kepler’s expectations in its accounts put some geopolitical risks related to the size of the market supply, the report indicates that the additional supplies resulting from increasing production from within and outside OPEC+still test the market’s ability to absorb it.

One of the most important geopolitical risks to the supply is the supply of Iran and Venezuela, whose loss is estimated at 670 thousand barrels per day by this year, according to the report.

But despite this, “Kepler” indicated that global oil stocks enlarged in the past weeks, which causes them to see that the market balance tends towards the direction of landing, especially with the collision of the OPEC+strategy for supplies with American and Iranian flexibility.

Canadian exports, especially to Asia, increased with strong flows supported by strong production of oil sand and an increase in the “TMX” pipeline, according to the report, which also indicated the growth of Brazilian exports, although the additional “OPEC+” supplies may replace some future flows.

America’s oil production tends to slight down

The “Kepler” report indicates that the production of American crude from the neutral area turned towards a slight decline, to remain stable around the level of 13.5 million barrels per day, amid price fluctuations and reduce capital spending.

It is expected that the risk of decreased production by 120,000 barrels per day will recede by the end of the year, according to the report.

At the same time, the tankers continue to deal with caution with the movement of oil in the Red Sea, despite the ceasefire between the United States and the Houthis.

In China, there is a state of optimism about local oil production, despite the weakness of crude prices and weak demand expectations, according to Kepler in its report.

India’s imports of Russian oil are also increasing, with more tankers joining the fleet of oil shipping to Russia.

“OPEC” has reduced the expectations of oil supply growth from outside “OPEC+” to 0.8 million barrels per day during the next two years, to be less than 100 thousand barrels per day than last month’s estimates, indicating that most growth will come under the leadership of the United States and Latin America.